EBMcalc Logo
  Gail Model for 5 Year Risk of Breast Cancer in Black Women (2007)

RelRisk = Menarche * NumBiops * AgeFLBNumRels * AtypHyper
FiveYearRisk = RelRisk * BaselineRiskForAge

Menarche Age at menarche ≥14 years old (1.00)

Age at menarche <14 years old (1.31)
Num Biops
Age FLB Num Rels
Atyp Hyper No biopsies (1.00)

At least one biopsy and no atypical hyperplasia found in any biopsy specimen (0.93)

No atypical hyperplasia found and hyperplasia status unknown for at least one biopsy specimen (1.00)

Atypical hyperplasia found in at least one biopsy specimen (1.82)
Baseline Risk For Age
Rel Risk  
Five Year Risk  
Decimal Precision  


  1. Gail MH, Costantino JP, Pee D, et. al. Projecting individualized absolute invasive breast cancer risk in African American women. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2007 Dec 5;99(23):1782-92. Epub 2007 Nov 27. PMID: 18042936 PubMed Logo
  2. Gail MH, Constantino JP, Bryant J, et. al. Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen Treatment for Preventing Breast Cancer. J. National Cancer Institute. 1999; V91, #21, pages 1829-1846. PMID: 10547390 PubMed Logo
  3. Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, et. al. Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Sep 15;91(18):1541-8. PMID: 10491430 PubMed Logo
  4. MedCalc CrossRef: Gail Model (1989 paper)
  5. MedCalc CrossRef: Odds Ratio and Relative Risk
  6. MedCalc CrossRef: Breast Cancer Local Recurrence Risk

Associated Medical Subject Headings [MeSH] Terms
         Adult,   African Americans,   Age Factors,   Aged,   Anticarcinogenic Agents,   Antineoplastic Agents,   Biopsy,   Bone,   Breast,   Breast Neoplasms,   Carcinoma,   Carcinoma in Situ,   Cataract,   Confounding Factors (Epidemiology),   Controlled Clinical Trials as Topic,   Counseling,   Ductal,   Education,   Endometrial Neoplasms,   Estrogen Receptor Modulators,   Female,   Forecasting,   Fractures,   Hormonal,   Humans,   Incidence,   Logistic Models,   Mammography,   Mass Screening,   Middle Aged,   Models,   National Institutes of Health (U.S.),   Neoplasm Invasiveness,   Odds Ratio,   Patient Education as Topic,   Pulmonary Embolism,   Raloxifene,   Reproducibility of Results,   Risk,   Risk Assessment,   Risk Factors,   SEER Program,   Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators,   Statistical,   Stroke,   Tamoxifen,   Venous Thrombosis,   Women's Health

Associated ICD9-CM Codes
   239.3Breast neoplasm nos
   V10.3Hx of breast malignancy
   611.72Lump or mass in breast
   174.8Malign neopl breast nec
   174.9Malign neopl breast nos

Legal Notices and Disclaimer

All information contained in and produced by the EBMcalc system is provided for educational purposes only. This information should not be used for the diagnosis or treatment of any health problem or disease. THIS INFORMATION IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE CLINICAL JUDGMENT OR GUIDE INDIVIDUAL PATIENT CARE IN ANY MANNER. Click here for full notice and disclaimer.
MedCalc 3000 is Copyright © 1998-2017 Foundation Internet    [Build 252309 v17.1]