Gail Model for 5 Year Risk of Breast Cancer in Black Women (2007)

 

Input
 

Menarche	Age at menarche ≥14 years old (1.00)
	Age at menarche <14 years old (1.31)
Num Biops Age at counseling <50 years old: No biopsies (1.00) 1 biopsy (1.20) ≥2 biopsies (1.44)   Age at counseling ≥50 years old: No biopsies (1.00) 1 biopsy (1.07) ≥2 biopsies (1.15) _______________________________________
Age FLB Num Rels Age at 1st live birth <20 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.00) 1 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.61) ≥2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (2.59)   Age at 1st live birth 20-24 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.00) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (1.61) ≥2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (2.59)   Age at 1st live birth 25-29 yrs or nulliparous: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.00) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (1.61) ≥2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (2.59)   Age at 1st live birth ≥30 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.00) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (1.61) ≥2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (2.59) _______________________________________
Atyp Hyper	No biopsies (1.00)
	At least one biopsy and no atypical hyperplasia found in any biopsy specimen (0.93)
	No atypical hyperplasia found and hyperplasia status unknown for at least one biopsy specimen (1.00)
	Atypical hyperplasia found in at least one biopsy specimen (1.82)
Baseline Risk For Age 20-24 (0.010) 25-29 (0.041) 30-34 (0.113) 35-39 (0.245) 40-44 (0.431) 45-49 (0.674) 50-54 (0.880) 55-59 (1.052) 60-64 (1.106) 65-69 (1.285) 70-74 (1.340) 75-79 (1.350) 80-84 (1.242) _______________________________________

 
Results
 

Rel Risk
Five Year Risk		% fraction percent rate ratio
Decimal Precision   0 1 2 3

 

   
 
Include literature references: Yes   No

 

Notes

• Be sure to go through all of the pull-down choices. Some select more than one linked risk factors (see below.)
• The Num Biops term refers to the number of prior breast biopsies performed. It is linked to the Age at Counseling.
• The Age FLB Num Rels term refers to the subject's age when she had her first live birth. It is linked to the number of her relatives that have been diagnosed with breast cancer.

 
Equations used
 

RelRisk = Menarche * NumBiops * AgeFLBNumRels * AtypHyper

FiveYearRisk = RelRisk * BaselineRiskForAge

 

 

Calculation Details and Variables

• Equation parameters such as Menarche, have two or more discrete values that may be used in the calculation. The numbers in the parentheses, e.g. (1.00), represent the values that will be used.

 

References

1. Gail MH, Costantino JP, Pee D, et al. Projecting individualized absolute invasive breast cancer risk in African American women. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2007 Dec 5;99(23):1782-92. Epub 2007 Nov 27. PubMed ID: 18042936
2. Gail MH, Constantino JP, Bryant J, et al. Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen Treatment for Preventing Breast Cancer. J. National Cancer Institute. 1999; V91, #21, pages 1829-1846. PubMed ID: 10547390
3. Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, et al. Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Sep 15;91(18):1541-8. PubMed ID: 10491430
4. EBMcalc CrossRef: Gail Model (1989 paper)
5. EBMcalc CrossRef: Odds Ratio and Relative Risk
6. EBMcalc CrossRef: Breast Cancer Local Recurrence Risk

 

Associated Medical Subject Headings [MeSH]
 

Adult, African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Anticarcinogenic Agents, Antineoplastic Agents, Biopsy, Bone, Breast, Breast Neoplasms, Carcinoma, Carcinoma in Situ, Cataract, Confounding Factors (Epidemiology), Controlled Clinical Trials as Topic, Counseling, Ductal, Education, Endometrial Neoplasms, Estrogen Receptor Modulators, Female, Forecasting, Fractures, Hormonal, Humans, Incidence, Logistic Models, Mammography, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Models, National Institutes of Health (U.S.), Neoplasm Invasiveness, Odds Ratio, Patient Education as Topic, Pulmonary Embolism, Raloxifene, Reproducibility of Results, Risk, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, SEER Program, Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators, Statistical, Stroke, Tamoxifen, Venous Thrombosis, Women's Health