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  COVID-19 Criticality Prediction (Yan 3/3/2020)

 
Input
 
LDH  
hsCRP  
Percent Lymphocytes  

 
Results
 
 
Prediction  
 

 
     
 
Include literature references: Yes   No
 
Notes
  • This algorithm is based on a pre-print publication[1] and has not completed peer-review or methodological review yet. The results cannot be verified to be clinically accurate at your organization.
  • LDH: lactate dehydrogenase; hsCRP: high sensitivity C-reactive protein.
Calculation Details and Variables
  • Three predictive factors were discovered through machine learning using the XGBoost Classifier.[2]
  • LDH >=365 U/L was associated with increased risk of death.
  • For lower LDH levels, an hsCRP level <41.2 mg/L was associated with increased probability of survival.
  • If the LDH was <365 U/L and the hsCRP was ≥41.2 mg/L, the Percent Lymphocyte value predicted outcome: In these cases, Percent Lymphocyte >14.7% were associated with increased survival while Percent Lymphocyte ≤14.7% were associated with increased mortaility.

 
References
  1. Yan L, Zhang HT, Xiao Y, et al. Prediction of criticality in patients with severe Covid-19 infection using three clinical features: a machine learning-based prognostic model with clinical data in Wuhan. MedRxiv, the Preprint Server for health Sciences. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.27.20028027v2 accessed 3/17/2020.
  2. Chen T, Guestrin C. Xgboost: A scalable tree boosting system. arxiv e-prints. arXiv preprint arXiv:1603.0275, 2016.

 
Associated Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes [LOINC]
 
Parameter LOINC's and Suggested Units
LDH 2532-0 : U/L      2537-9 : U/L      
hsCRP 30522-7 : mg/L      71426-1 : mg/L      76486-0 : nmol/L      
Percent Lymphocytes 736-9 : %      735-1 : %      737-7 : %      15197-7 : %      26478-8 : %      

 
This material contains content from LOINC® (http://loinc.org). The LOINC table, LOINC codes, and LOINC panels and forms file are copyright © 1995-2014, Regenstrief Institute, Inc. and the Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes (LOINC) Committee and available at no cost under the license at http://loinc.org/terms-of-use.

 
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All information contained in and produced by the EBMcalc system is provided for educational purposes only. This information should not be used for the diagnosis or treatment of any health problem or disease. THIS INFORMATION IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE CLINICAL JUDGMENT OR GUIDE INDIVIDUAL PATIENT CARE IN ANY MANNER. Click here for full notice and disclaimer.
 
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